What will a pause in arms supplies mean for Ukraine and Europe and what to do about it?
A pause in U.S. military aid is a serious development that weakens Ukraine’s defense.
It emboldens Russia and demonstrates that the current U.S. administration does not understand the situation in Ukraine or the fact that its actions only support Russia’s bloody dictatorial regime.
U.S. actions are disgraceful and threaten not only Ukraine’s security but also that of Europe.
Russia will likely try to take advantage of the situation by launching new offensives as soon as weather conditions allow, aiming to seize more territory and inflict additional losses on Ukrainian forces. If Ukrainian forces do not receive material assistance to replace lost U.S. support, this could lead to further territorial losses and force Ukraine into negotiations from a weak position.
European countries must immediately provide Ukraine with funding so that it can order weapons from its own defense industry at full capacity. At the same time, they should place more orders with their own defense enterprises to produce the necessary equipment.
European countries must also take the risk of transferring materials from European armed forces’ stockpiles to Ukraine, even if this temporarily reduces their reserves to a dangerous level.
The EU must continue and strengthen sanctions against Russia to hit the resources of its government and its ability to produce weapons and ammunition.
European political leadership must continue trying to convey to the Trump administration the serious consequences of its actions and the need to maintain support for Ukraine.
However, if, as one deputy defense minister stated, Ukraine has enough resources for six months, this could give European countries time to supply additional weapons to replace American aid and sustain the fight.
Russia is also suffering losses in this war, and by the end of the year, its economy and armed forces will be significantly weakened, forcing Putin to negotiate from a position of weakness.
