War will come to EU countries if they do not join collective defense with Ukraine
Mass fireworks in European cities on New Year's Eve indicate not so much the traditional joyful mood in countries that are not at war, but rather laxity and illusions of security.
If any of the citizens of EU countries, especially Ukraine's neighbors, have the illusion that Russian aggression is ending, that the offensive will stop, that the newly elected US president has all the leverage and everything will end on the territory of Ukraine, then there are many arguments to disappoint them.
First, the Russian regime has hostile goals not only for Ukraine, but for all of Europe. And they will definitely not change. After all, the Russian regime, on the eve of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in mid-December 2021, sent its ultimatum to Brussels and Washington, not to Kyiv.
Secondly, such a "peace" desired by everyone (at the cost of territories and the surrender of Ukraine), or more precisely, a temporary ceasefire, will result in the return to rotation of tens or hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who receive monetary compensation for their crimes and have already experienced the smell of blood, impunity, and courage.
Do you think the Russian regime will be able to incorporate them back into society without consequences, especially criminals and those who came to war for the sake of booty?! They will be sent, if not as mercenaries to Africa, then to Belarus – to the border with Poland and Lithuania, closer to Estonia and Finland.
Thirdly, America is far away, and it is easier to consider different scenarios there, while EU countries are within the flight distance of a strike drone (now there are hundreds of drones), not to mention the presence of common borders with the barbarians of the 21st century - both maritime and land.
And you think that strategic bombers will stop flying, missile programs will be curtailed, and all Russian ships will sail into the South China Sea?
Fourth, the world is only at the beginning of a series of local and regional conflicts and wars, and the EU and NATO countries in Europe will hardly be able to concentrate more resources than they do now, when there is a chance to stop the aggressor outside their territories.
Fifth, taking into account recent examples of attacks on communications in Europe and the increasing Russian subversive activity, one can imagine what will happen next if the aggressor gets a pause in its reinforcement and the sanctions pressure on the economy is reduced. Does anyone have any illusions that the freed up resources will be used to increase the well-being of Russians?!
Therefore, there can be only one conclusion: if the countries of Europe do not unite with Ukraine in an armed coalition to counter the aggressor, if they do not triple their efforts this year and, as would be correct and in accordance with the UN Charter, do not use collective self-defense against the Russian Federation, the war will come directly to them, to their territory.
And don't go to a fortune teller. And then they definitely won't be in the mood for fireworks.
