Ukrainians have become cynical. Any old peace deal won’t do – KIIS Executive Director Hrushetskyi

"There is an association that Kyiv youth are indifferent to the war in the snotty capital, which is sick of easy money and air defense," Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), tells LIGA.net.

But this is an associative series formed by social networks, the sociologist argues.

The results of KIIS polls show that in reality, Ukrainians are different. They are not indifferent, emotionally involved in the life of the country and with minimal differences in views on really important things. The full-scale invasion has smoothed out regional differences on many issues. Ukrainians have become more cynical and pragmatic, he notes.

In an interview with LIGA.net, Anton Hrushetsky explained how this affects the attitude of Ukrainians to the war and possible compromises, and why it seems that there is no more unity in society.

Why is trust in Zelenskyy declining?

LIGA.net: According to a recent KIIS survey, 52% of Ukrainians trust the president, while 39% do not. This is the lowest level since the war. What do these numbers mean?

Anton Hrushetskyi: Throughout 2024, the level of trust in the president was declining. But even now, despite all the circumstances, the balance of trust and distrust is positive – plus 13%. This is a pretty good result. If, for example, in the United States, Britain, Germany, or France, 50% of people trust a politician, this is a high figure.

What can we understand about the reasons for this trend?

When we talk about the readiness of Ukrainians for territorial concessions, their optimism or pessimism, we must take into account the current context.

We [sociologists] have the impression that the growth of pessimism, the increase in the number of Ukrainians ready to make concessions, and the decline in trust in the government are, first of all, a reflection of the general mood, which is based on the situation at the front.

"2024 was a difficult year. People see the advance of Russian troops. Although, by the way, we emphasize that the Russians have captured a lot, but less than 1% of Ukrainian territory with huge losses."

But all this has a depressing effect on people. They are becoming more critical of the government.

Another point is the internal situation. When we conducted a study in May on the results of Zelenskyy's five-year term, we found that many people had a major complaint about his team, not his work itself. Plus, keep in mind that last year there was an attempt to destabilize the situation in Ukraine by spreading falsehoods about the president's illegitimacy. Despite this, the public legitimacy of the president has not collapsed.

But, of course, for Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office, the latest figures are an alarming trend. They should realize that it may continue to develop further.

Are Ukrainians ready for concessions to Russia?

Is the readiness of Ukrainians for territorial concessions also increasing?

Since 2023, we have seen an increase in the share of those who are generally ready for them in order to achieve peace. This is a steady trend. There was a break between May and October against the backdrop of the Kursk operation. By December, growth began to resume.

For the vast majority of Ukrainians – 90% or more – the occupation of any piece of Ukrainian land is not legitimate. However, if Ukraine is offered a certain package that guarantees membership in the EU and NATO, if they feel physically secure and have prospects for economic recovery, they may accept with a heavy heart and without enthusiasm the option of postponing the liberation of the occupied territories until the future.

"But only if Ukraine receives EU and NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees in return. Ukrainians have become more cynical, and any old paperwork will not satisfy them. These must be serious, reliable guarantees."

That is, Ukrainians will not accept attempts to reach a compromise at our expense?

No, they will not. Prominent Western humanist intellectuals believe that Ukrainians simply want the fighting to stop and no one to shoot. But this is not true.

Ukrainians realize that they have already gone through all this in 2015. When de facto part of the territory remained occupied, and Russia used the relative truce to build up its forces, put Europe on the gas needle, and attack Ukraine again, which at the time was not receiving adequate assistance from its Western partners.

Therefore, if partners offer a compromise without security guarantees, Ukrainians will reject it. A full-scale invasion is an absolute tragedy, and if Ukrainians are pushed to make painful compromises, they want something equivalent.

On the other hand, this tragic event has some positive consequences.

What are these consequences?

Over the past three years, the population's self-esteem has grown significantly. The realization that we were able to stop Russia's invasion and effectively restrain the Russians' advance for three years leads to the conclusion that we are not as incompetent as we were convinced. We have the strength.

For all the power of the Russian machine, Russia actually has a very limited advance. Ukrainians realize this. In September, our poll showed that more than 80% are convinced that if the West gives us enough weapons, we will succeed.

Therefore, Ukrainians are not in a situation where "everything is lost". There is a lot of this narrative on social media. However, objectively, when we talk to Ukrainians in our surveys in a calm environment, when their social media is closed, they understand that Ukraine is holding on, Russia is getting a sock on the jaw, and life goes on.

Recently, one of the American journalists started a conversation with me by saying that there is probably a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine, people are starving and lack money. I gave him the results of polls: only about 2% of Ukrainians say that they often face the problem of malnutrition. There are some frontline municipalities where the situation is really difficult. But it is definitely not a humanitarian catastrophe.

Therefore, Ukrainians will definitely not be satisfied with peace on any terms.

There is no such sentiment that "if Putin wants four oblasts and Crimea, let him take it, if he wants a pro-Russian government, let him install it." There is a clear understanding that the war is existential. And it is not just about changing the flag, it is about survival.

Let's go back to the fact that Ukrainians have become more cynical and realize that the compromises of 2015 cannot be repeated. What is the evidence of this? Because it seems that the military and military-related communities draw parallels with 2015 only in the sense that the war has only stopped concerning civilians.

Polls show that the vast majority of civilian Ukrainians are not indifferent to the war. 70% of people say they have relatives who are dead or wounded. Despite the financially difficult times, most Ukrainians say they are trying to donate.

Sociologists see that in terms of Ukrainians' perception, this is not 2015 at all. The scale of the events and the scope of their coverage are completely different. In addition, Russia constantly reminds us every week with massive attacks that it is a terrorist state.

Of course, the perception of Ukrainians is greatly influenced by individual cases that appear in the information space. For example, when a well-known TikToker goes to Independence Square and shows how he interviews five or six random people with questionable views, saying "I don't care, I'm for peace." And we don't even know how many people he actually interviewed, what answers were cut out, what happened at the montage stage.

"This creates an association that young people are indifferent to the war in the snotty capital, which is sick of easy money and air defense. But our result, which is representative of the population, shows that the vast majority of young people feel an emotional connection to Ukraine and want to stay."

How social media destroys unity

Many say that we need unity to win. What is our situation with this? Sometimes you read social media and it seems that Ukrainians are ready to "kill each other."

Social media and digital technologies in general greatly distort reality.

Ukrainians also believe that there is less unity now. Although, since the invasion, regional differences on many geopolitical issues have been smoothed out. Yes, there is a slightly higher willingness to make concessions to peace in frontline communities, but not because these are pro-Russian regions. It is because they are suffering under shelling.

"When Russian FPV drones are hunting people on your street, it can break you. You need to understand this. But even under these conditions, the difference between the regions is now just minimal."

In such things as joining NATO or the EU, language and historical policy, the positions of Ukrainians have significantly converged. Every region understands that Russia is an enemy and Russians are enemies.

However, our enemies have learned to pressure vulnerabilities on the lines of division. For example, they are reinforcing populist theses that there are good ordinary soldiers and bad commanders, good Ukrainians, and bad authorities. This leads many people to the conclusion that we have little unity.

If you go out on the streets away from social media, you see people trying to live, do business, make coffee, clear the rubble after impacts, power engineers running around working, mobile groups traveling. Everyone supports each other, and pretty much everyone is nice.

Hypothetically, these are the same people who write on social networks?

Absolutely. But only an absolute minority of people write and participate in discussions on social media. Most people there are passive, they just consume information. They scroll through a page, look at photos, or post a photo with their children or from a holiday.

We have a poll, not a public one, but an illustrative one. There is an open-ended question: "Why do you think people are afraid to serve?" In social media, I see the thesis: let the children of MPs and officials serve. The number of such responses among real respondents, if we summarize them in statistics, is a few percent.

What is the real majority's answer to this question?

Most people are concerned about other issues – a certain natural fear for their health, fear for their families – who will provide for them. There is a fear of commanders, because the problems that arise in individual units are being spun.

How has the war changed Ukrainians? What does our worldview look like now?

Ukrainians' assessment of their financial situation, indicators of happiness, and certain optimism remain quite decent for a society that has been at war for almost three years.

We have a moderate and pragmatic view of the situation. It is an exaggeration to say that people are sitting with a telethon in their heads.

The most important thing for us is to maintain internal unity. The feeling that there is no unity can be the most demoralizing and lead to weakening and defeat. Because it will provoke the question among the defenders: why should we fight? It will raise the question to the rear: why continue to volunteer and help the Armed Forces? And finally, it will demotivate our ambassadors abroad to put pressure on their governments.