There are up to 200,000 Russians in southern Ukraine. Will there be an offensive on Zaporizhzhia?

Since October, the Russian army has resumed tactical offensives in southern Ukraine – on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The Economist, citing a senior Ukrainian official, reported on October 23 that the next target of the Russian invasion forces could be an attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Additional weapons and equipment will be sent to Zaporizhzhia, with special attention paid to preparing for defense operations in the fall and winter, says the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Currently, there are no signs of offensive groups being formed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces, tells LIGA.net.

However, the Russian grouping has potential near Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer at the Information Resistance group, says in a comment to LIGA.net.

Here is a brief description of what the Russians have enough resources for in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The southern front. Constant shelling, up to 200,000 troops

According to the General Staff, as of October 30, the enemy made six assaults on Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka, Yasna Poliana, and Shakhtarske in the Vremivka sector. It actively used attack and bombing aircraft to carry out the attacks.

In the Prydniprovskyi sector, Russian troops attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces four times. They were repelled and suffered losses.

The situation on the contact line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has not changed much for several weeks, Voloshyn tells LIGA.net: "The Russians are conducting constant artillery shelling, constantly using missile weapons, striking with both guided aerial bombs and unguided aircraft rockets."

Russia also constantly uses drones and attacks with kamikaze drones.

The Russians are maintaining a solid grouping on the southern axis, adds the spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine. According to Voloshyn, several combined arms armies from the Russian Southern and Eastern Military Districts are now present there. There is also a corps from the Northern Fleet, which is stationed on the Tendra and Kinburn spits. In addition, three divisions of airborne troops are operating in this area.

"Including the Black Sea Fleet, units and formations in the temporarily occupied Crimea, and units of their air force, the Russian Guard, the GRU, and police services, up to 200,000 people are concentrated on the southern axis," Voloshyn says.

"But they are not creating groups here for offensives on any one axis. It's not as if they've gathered a lot of forces in one place that will give them an advantage," he stressed.

There is no significant activity of Russians in Zaporizhzhia Oblast yet, Viktor Kevliuk, an analyst at the Center for Defense Strategies, tells LIGA.net.

"Near Zaporizhzhia, we have the Vasylivka axis near Enerhodar, where nothing has happened since last year," he explains. "The Orikhiv axis, where fighting has been going on for two years near the village of Robotyne, and no progress: the Russians captured half the village – our guys took back half the village. The Huliaypole axis – as soon as there are a few reports that something is starting to happen there, it ends immediately."

There is a little activity in the area of Velyka Novosilka, which is administratively part of Donetsk Oblast, but geographically it is the territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

According to Voloshyn, the Russians continue to train their personnel on the Vremivka axis: they are practicing more active combat operations under the cover of drones and using anti-thermal imaging cloaks. They are also preparing to use armored vehicles not only to transport assault groups on the battlefield, but also to support infantry actions with the fire of these armored vehicles.

"From Kursk to Zaporizhzhia". Are the Russians preparing for an offensive?

If the Russians are planning to attack Zaporizhzhia, they have to prepare for it and somehow accumulate resources, Kevliuk adds.

"At the moment, we see that the enemy has withdrawn troops from the Dnipro axis, pulled troops from the Zaporizhzhia direction and sent them to Kursk Oblast," he states. "The question is: does it make sense to accumulate something in Kursk Oblast to attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast? It sounds a bit wild."

In order to launch an offensive with a breakthrough in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, the Russians need a resource similar to the one concentrated in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove area, Kovalenko tells LIGA.net. "We are talking about an average of 80-100,000 personnel concentrated in a particular direction.

"But they will not have enough personnel and resources to occupy and capture Zaporizhzhia," the military and political observer clarifies.

It takes 30 to 45 days to form a strike group, Kevliuk adds.

So far, there are no signs of such a formation, Voloshyn said. Currently, the Russians are training shock troops to conduct assault operations in small groups of five to 10 people, says the spokesman for the Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces. These small groups are used to capture certain frontiers, hold and consolidate them, and penetrate the Ukrainian defense.

"Such tactics of assault actions brought them some benefit in certain areas: in Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiyivka," Voloshyn said. "That is why they are now using the same tactics, for example, on the Vremivka axis. There were days when there were 20-22 assaults by such small groups when they just approached our frontiers in waves."

"The potential is there." What to expect next

However, the available resources may be enough for the Russian army to regain control of the territories they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Kovalenko argues. It makes it possible to cut off the Robotyne ledge, go beyond Zolota Nyva to Velyka Novosilka, open the approach to Huliaypole, and expand the zone of control near Pryiutne.

"The potential is there, but how they will use it is another question," he said. "The only operation larger than this scenario is an offensive and the capture of Zaporizhzhia, but the Russians critically lack resources for this."

At the same time, the Russian troop grouping "Dnepr", which operates in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, is one of the worst equipped with equipment, Kovalenko adds: "Therefore, the efficiency of human resources will be much lower."

It is more important for the enemy to fulfill the task set by the Russian dictator: to capture Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by March 2025, Kevliuk tells LIGA.net.

"In Donetsk Oblast, the Russians are doing it a little more briskly," the analyst explains. "They have a realistic prospect of either surrounding our troops near Kurakhove or forcing them to retreat from there. To make the threat of encirclement real, the enemy has formed a grouping in the area of Velyka Novosilka and is trying to move northward from there. This is the closest point where something is happening in Zaporizhzhia Oblast."