Paris initiates a "missile coalition" for Ukraine. Will the West allow strikes on Russia?

French President Emmanuel Macron invited 20 European leaders to Paris to "smash Vladimir Putin's idea of victory." And he announced the creation of a missile coalition for "deep strikes", which involves the provision of medium- and long-range missiles.

"The Allies have agreed to buy munitions for us outside of Europe. The final decision will be made in 10 days," Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Center of Military-Law Studies, told LIGA.net.

We summarized what the leaders talked about in Paris and what it means for Ukraine.

"Let's humbly note that we were often late for 6-12 months. A new coalition will be created to supply Ukraine with medium and long-range missiles and aerial bombs for deep strikes," Macron said in conclusion.

There was no consensus to send Western ground troops to Ukraine, the French president admitted, "but nothing should be ruled out."

There are countries that can agree to such a step. There are those who will never go for it. And those countries who say that this proposal should be considered, says Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Russia has repeatedly threatened that the direct presence of Western troops in Ukraine will provoke a direct conflict between Moscow and NATO. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured after the meeting that the Alliance does not plan to send its infantry to Ukraine.

It is not the first time that there has been talk of sending troops to Ukraine, recalls the head of the Center of Military-Law Studies Oleksandr Musiienko. So the idea is being revisited.

At the same time, Macron called on European countries to produce more ammunition for Ukraine. According to him, in the short term, Europe will be able to provide Ukraine with only those projectiles it has in its warehouses. "We don't have the promised million shells," he said.

The Czech Republic's proposal to source shells from outside the EU received significant support in Paris. For France, this is a significant shift. Previously, the country was against Prague's initiative to collect 1.4 billion euros for ammunition for Ukraine in compensation for the blocked US package and the delay in supplies from the EU. Now about 15 countries are ready to join this collection.

WHY THIS MATTERS. The missile coalition is important so that Ukraine has the opportunity to destroy the Russian rear and logistics, says Musiienko.

Long-range strikes are of particular importance for the Defense Forces, military analyst Ivan Sichen tells LIGA.net.

"Logistics, oil depots, processing plants, warehouses, barracks should be destroyed. Places where drones are made. Other targets of the Russian military-industrial complex. The Russian Federation is pulling logistics further and further away from the front, and further means of destruction are needed. Now we hit distant targets only with our drones, which have consequences, but bigger ones are needed," says Sichen.

Macron directly stated that the missiles could change the situation strategically. Probably, they will be allowed to strike on the territory of Russia. This is exactly what the allies can discuss, Musiienko believes.

Some countries already agree to buy weapons outside the EU, states Musiienko. The Netherlands will give 100 million euros to buy 800,000 shells found by Czechia. Purchases from outside the EU will help to partially close the ammunition shortage, Sichen states.

"There is a sense of urgency about munitions and air defenses. I hope other countries will follow," said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Russia is not capable of producing the number of shells it boasts of, adds Sichen. If it could, it would not have bought them from North Korea. The same goes for armored vehicles. Missing components. At will, the West could turn the situation with weapons in Ukraine's favor.

WHAT'S NEXT. Not all details of European initiatives can be made public now, says Macron. Countries are analyzing which shells can be bought on the market. Most likely, the decision will be made in 10 days.

The French president probably took a break until the United States finds an opportunity to bypass Congress and transfer at least 10-15 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, Musiienko argues. This could affect Germany's approval to hand over the Taurus missiles. In the meantime, France will be able to consider the transfer of Mirage 2000 aircraft.

The EU is starting to work on restoring its military-industrial might. These are strategic changes and they will soon yield results, Sichen assures. "If there is a will, they will build appropriate plants," he says. "Long-term contracts with manufacturers are needed to pay off the investments. We are waiting for a decision on increasing production and removing bureaucratic obstacles."