Everything is consistently bad, even though we haven't lost: Biggest vulnerabilities right now

I will try to describe the moment in which we are.

In the war, none of the sides was able to secure a real advantage in 2.5 years (in parentheses, I will note that this is not bad, because the starting conditions were very different). The turning point has not yet arrived, but it is slowly approaching. Because none of the parties has infinite stability and infinite resources.

Each side has vulnerabilities, and each side's task is to protect their own vulnerabilities and strike at the opponent's vulnerabilities.

Vulnerabilities of Russia:

• an overheated economy, which I have written about in detail, and the depletion of financial reserves;
• dependence on the high price of oil: in the case of $50 per barrel, everything collapses;
• dependence on China, which is constantly deepening;
• the imperial, colonialist nature of Russian statehood: dozens of peoples and regional identities with unequal social status (the Kadyrov phenomenon is part of this);
• an authoritarian regime that poorly perceives external signals and often produces unsuccessful management decisions;
• depletion of military equipment warehouses.

(All these and other, more subtle vulnerabilities are described in much more detail in closed documents.)

Vulnerabilities of Ukraine (here I write only the obvious ones, you yourself understand why I do not give a complete list):

• weak small economy;
• dependence on Western partners for money and weapons;
• a democratic regime that requires the consent of citizens to wage war (the vulnerability of the energy system is part of this story).

I will not discuss here how Ukraine strikes at Russian vulnerabilities. Let's talk about how Russia hits the Ukrainian ones.

As for the economy, here the negative influence of one's own indolence is higher than the Russian one (or maybe it is the Russian influence, and not indolence; but let's remember Occam's razor, and even Hai Tao believed that the world is ruled by an open mess, not a private lodge).

As for relationships with partners, I wrote a long article about it a week ago.

So, at the current moment, the greatest vulnerability of Ukraine is the consent of the citizens to wage war, which a democratic regime needs (an authoritarian regime does not: the leader said that we must die for the empire, so we must: our grandfathers and great-grandfathers died and bequeathed to us).

Ukrainian society is losing its consent to waging war as a result of the following factors:

1. Physical exhaustion of passionaries (highly driven individuals with a deep passion for societal change). Those who wanted to join the army themselves did so a long time ago. Neither appeals, nor advertisements, not even the Third Assault Brigade, have an effect on the others. Mobilization is required, see the next point.
2. Failure of the mobilization system. Apparently, there are all legal grounds and personal data. There is no political will and organizational capacity. There is no political will, because there is an intention to win the elections, and the passionaries are a minority, they will not bring victory in the elections. Organizational capacity is limited to raids on concerts and restaurants, and if you send out even 10,000 draft summonses, and let half come, the system will collapse.
3. Terrible manifestations of corruption and other troubles do not lift the mood.
4. And this is where the Russians come in with their vast experience in operations. To keep society constantly in a state of tension, to create a feeling of hopelessness, impending inevitable disaster. They do it professionally, they have huge resources. We help them: citizens themselves willingly share horror and hopelessness (often read in Russian or anonymous sources), and the media cannot stop in the pursuit of clickbait and compete in terrible headlines.

In fact, nothing is terrible. Things are consistently bad, but we haven't been defeated, and we won't be defeated tomorrow (unless the Russians collapse our social stability). The allies have not abandoned us, the front has not been breached, our military industry has not stopped, the enemy has not captured any regional center, logistics are functioning, air defense protects the cities, the military command maintains control, the parliament meets, volunteers work, taxes are paid, bread is baked every day, trolleybuses run, the usual third year of a full-scale war continues.

The Russians are now doing everything to collapse Ukrainian society. This is our biggest vulnerability at the moment.

The number of commentators (not bots, live people) who come in shouting that we have already been defeated is a testament to Russian success.

It is important for them that we enter the winter in such a state that we cannot exit the winter.

Then the allies will look and make appropriate decisions. And domestic political leaders will follow the majority.

The absence of public consent to the continuation of the war means the public consent to defeat. That is, for the conclusion of peace without any guarantees that it will last more than half a year or a year, and then a new strike with accumulated and renewed forces. And then it's over. There are currently no other "peace proposals" on the table.

I don't think it is necessary to explain: the defeat does not mean the wise preservation of the nation (like the French Vichy state), but Bucha and Mariupol throughout the country. The Nazis needed an exit from the war and industry from France. The Kremlin needs an end to identity from Ukrainians. The goals of war are different.

"How fast time flies. I hope it supports us," Ukrainian pop sensation Klavdia Petrivna sang. The Russian resource is exhaustive. Allies are slowly moving in the right direction. The end of the elections in the USA will give impetus to the revitalization of world politics. The military industry is slowly gaining momentum.

It is important to survive to this time.

The situation does not depend on ministers and generals, but on you specifically. Do not despair, do not give up, do not spread panic. Don't blame others. Help others. At least do something for defense. Daily. Prepare yourself psychologically to fight when the draft summons comes. Prepare psychologically for the fact that all this will continue for some time. Try to keep your mind cool. Periodically clean it from the debris that the Russians pour there. Don't blame others. Help those who have it harder (there is always someone who has it harder than you). To hold on and help others to hold on. Thank others.

You can do it, I'm sure. Hugs