What is the cost of guaranteeing Ukraine's victory?
Ukraine can win the war against Russia. It has all the troops it needs – about 1 million men and women under arms. It needs two things money and arms.
For 2025, Russia officially plans $176 bn, 9% of GDP, in military & security expenditures. It is probably slightly more, say $190 bn, 10% of GDP, but much of this is stolen & much inefficient.
In 2024, Ukraine spent about $90 bn on its military, $40 bn from its own budget & $50 bn in Western arms supplies.
Ukraine needs $100 bn more in financing to WIN.
The West has frozen $300 bn of Russian Central Bank reserves in the West. 2/3 is in the Euroclear bank in Brussels. There is NO reason not to take those funds and pass them on to Ukraine as Russian war reparations. $100 bn in 2025 suffices to turn the war.
For $100 bn extra, Ukraine can buy all the arms it needs to win. The US has plenty of arms – half its arsenal is written off in the deserts of Arizona & Nevada. Just deliver it!
US arms producers love exporting if the Pentagon just gives licenses, which is a too hard slog.
Last September, I talked to Oleksandr Kamyshin, who is in charge of Ukraine's armaments industry. He claimed that Ukraine in 2024 produces and sells arms, mainly drones, for $10 bn, but it has capacity for $20bn. In 2025, that capacity will be $30 bn – 4 million drones of various types.
The Russian funds must be seized. They should be used to buy arms from Ukraine first, from Europe and the US.
Make sure Ukraine has $200 bn in military expenditures in 2025. Then its victory will be assured.