US and Ukraine: How Blinken's successor Marco Rubio sees Putin's plans
In the Ukrainian information space, for some reason, people started hating on [Marco] Rubio. He's the new [Antony] Blinken under [Donald] Trump. Because he said that any deal involves compromises. What a revelation, right?
He spoke at hearings in Congress. He has to be approved, and he was asked questions. For some reason, in the U.S., it's not customary to vote for a person without asking them these questions first. And he said a lot. Causing a storm of outrage on the Ukrainian internet. But for some reason, they don't quote the key part of what he said. Here is the direct quote:
"[Vladimir] Putin’s goal now is to have maximum leverage so that he can basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, retrofit and come back and do this again in four or five years. And that’s not an outcome I think any of us would favor."
And this statement makes Marco Rubio's speech very optimistic. For Ukraine. Because it shows that despite all the verbal peculiarities of Trump's team, and especially Musk and Co., they still remain on our side. Which is significant, given the very poor expectations from Trump's victory.
What is this about? You can believe or not believe in successful negotiations, but this is, in any case, positive news.
If we believe that negotiations are possible and Putin really understands that time is running out and he needs to get out of the war, then the key issue for us is the question of security guarantees. Which must ensure stable development and the absence of a major threat of a new war.
Of course, we must always be ready. But if we are ready, the likelihood of an attack should be low. The presence of such security guarantees will make it possible for investors to come, and therefore economic growth. And it is these security guarantees that must ensure that readiness.
So, under conditions where negotiations are realistic, the key issues become security guarantees. It seems that there are very few dreamers left in Ukraine who still believe in the near prospect of either coffee in Crimea or returning to the 1991 borders.
And for us, it is a priority that any demands for capitulation that are now coming from Russia should be unacceptable to the Americans. So that no one in Washington even thinks of pressuring Ukraine to fulfill Putin's whims.
And they understand that the priority is to obtain stable guarantees, as far as possible, that Putin will not return in a few years. Yes, the best guarantee would be NATO, but here, unfortunately, any expectations of quick accession are unrealistic.
The main thing is not to agree to Putin's terms. To capitulation. And Rubio's speech confirms that this will not happen. And that Putin's demands for capitulation are unacceptable.
If we do not believe in successful negotiations, then this is even more positive. Because it means that the blame for the failure of the negotiations will be placed on Putin. Because he will demand capitulation. Which is unacceptable not only for Ukraine but also for the U.S.
This is important for us because it should preserve support from the U.S. in the war. And it is important that Putin knows and understands this now. Because this in itself is a factor that increases the likelihood of Russia rejecting its crazy demands.
You can hate on the Americans as much as you want for giving few tanks (forgetting that they formally gave their tanks only to unlock the provision of German tanks) or not giving everything we want, but without U.S. support and without the consolidating role of the U.S. at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, we would now be in a completely different position.
Both militarily and economically. Therefore, preserving this support is a priority.
And it is also important that Rubio understands Putin's real goal. Not Bakhmut. And not Pokrovsk interests him. But all of Ukraine. And by opposing Ukraine's accession to NATO, opposing military support, Putin simply wants to leave himself the hope of occupying Ukraine in the future.
And yes, the world will see more chaos in the next 4 years. And yes, [Elon] Musk is doing what [Ihor] Kolomoisky could only dream of in his best years. But this does not mean that everything is lost for us. And Rubio's speech only confirms this.