What's happening in Kursk Oblast and how far have Ukraine's Armed Forces advanced
For the first time since World War II, the army of another sovereign state has entered Russian territory. Ukraine's deep operation in Kursk Oblast, now in its third day, caught Russian military forces off guard, Bloomberg reported.
Although Ukrainian command officially remains silent about Kursk Oblast, the successful breach of the border and fortifications, on which Russia spent 15 billion rubles, was carried out by Ukraine's Defense Forces, former General Staff spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov told LIGA.net.
This is a reminder to Russia that any game can be played by two, said a military-political analyst of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko: "The game of destroying energy system and fuel infrastructure. With attacks on rear areas. And certainly the game of creating sanitary zones."
The significance of the fighting in Kursk Oblast and what to expect next – briefly.
What is known about the events in Kursk Oblast
On August 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had breached the border with Kursk Oblast near the small town of Sudzha. Local channels reported the advance of Ukrainian tanks with infantry toward the villages of Kurilovka and Goncharovka. The regional authorities claimed that the "Ukrainian breakthrough" had been stopped.
Nonetheless, propagandists continued to claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were seizing new settlements in Kursk Oblast. The tone of the reports was quite nervous.
By the evening of August 7, they had advanced deep into the territory, bypassing Sudzha from two directions – northeast and southeast.
As of August 8, the depth of the advance ranged from 14 to 25 kilometers, according to various reports. Dozens of Russian soldiers surrendered. Everyone describes the situation as extremely dynamic.
The Ukrainian command has not commented on these reports. Kursk Oblast is in a state of absolute silence. The Main Directorate of Intelligence, the Operational Command North, and other defense structures have refused to comment on the situation to LIGA.net.
Formally, there is still no confirmation that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are present in Kursk Oblast and are involved in the events, Oleksandr Kovalenko said.
"It turns out that now about 400 square kilometers in Kursk Oblast are controlled by some unknown three hundred Spartans," he said ironically.
Despite the silence, it's obviously about Ukraine's Defense Forces, not the RDK or Freedom Legion, Seleznyov said. He suggested this is Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi's plan, as "he is the architect of Ukraine's most successful counteroffensive campaign in 2022."
He stated that information about the operation will only be disclosed when doing so no longer endangers the lives of military personnel.
The Russian command seems unable to comment: the fighting in Kursk Oblast, now in its third day, is still being called a "provocation."
On August 7, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin held meetings on the situation in the region. Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov reported to Putin that Russian troops allegedly "stopped the enemy's advance deep into the territory in the Kursk direction," and promised to reach the Russian state border.
It is impossible to know for sure what is happening now in the Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast. Information can be obtained mainly from Russian propagandists, and the data they provide may differ significantly from the reality on the ground.
There are not many facts that can be verified: fighting continues, Russian soldiers are surrendering, border railway stations in Kursk Oblast have ceased operations, and Ukraine controls the Sudzha gas-metering station.
The importance of advancing deep into the territory of Russia
What's happening now in Kursk Oblast is purely and exclusively asymmetric actions of Ukrainian Defense Forces, Seleznyov said.
The Ukrainian General Staff managed to outplay the enemy and impose its initiative – now the Russians are forced to react to the steps of the Ukrainian army, he emphasized. What their further actions will be is unknown. And the reaction is delayed.
"They only declared a state of emergency in Kursk Oblast a day and a half after the fighting began," the former General Staff spokesman reminded.
The enemy, trying to maximize the window of opportunity "gifted" by the U.S. Congress's delay in supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, has thrown everything it has into the hell of war, he explained:
"Russia physically does not have reserves to stop the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast. This means that the enemy is now forced to withdraw resources from some sections of the front to move them to Kursk to block the actions of the Ukrainian army."
Kovalenko emphasized the swift pace of the advance: "The Russians began their 'Kharkiv performance' three months ago with nearly 50,000 troops. In the first two weeks, they managed to advance 6-8 kilometers before stalling. Here, over 400 square kilometers are under control on just the third day. The depth of penetration and control varies between 14 to 25 kilometers across a 35-kilometer front."
Redirecting reserves to Kursk Oblast will take some time, Seleznyov continued. From one to two weeks, given the delay in Russian generals' decision-making. During the movement, some columns of the Russian army may be detected by Ukrainian intelligence and come under Ukrainian fire.
Whether they have chances to survive is questionable," Seleznyov said.
Most likely, the enemy will be forced to transfer resources from other front sections, and this information will become known to Ukrainian intelligence, the former General Staff spokesman added.
"Further, measures of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely be taken to liberate our territories," he didn't rule out. "If we know that the enemy has weakened its military presence in some front section, it's worth trying to liberate these territories. So I think dark times are ahead for the enemy."
How it might end
The enemy will transfer reserves to Kursk Oblast, Victor Kevlyuk, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, said to LIGA.net. But predicting what will happen next, given the lack of information about the current state, is impossible: "It will be pure guesswork."
"We don't know the ultimate goal, nor the scale of this operation, nor the exact amount of resources involved. And no one can guarantee Russia a peaceful life in other border areas with Ukraine now," Seleznyov said.
We can say that a sanitary zone is being formed now, and the peculiarities of the relief and landscape of several Kursk Oblast districts are being used for this, Kovalenko added.
"Perhaps there's another goal, and it's about implementing some tactical, operational-tactical, I don't rule out – even strategic plans."
It's important that the Russian army is forced to reflect on these processes, Seleznyov said. The Russians were absolutely convinced that they set the tone of the war, the pace of combat operations, and determined where and when they would take place.
"They believed they had conserved the fighting within Ukraine's borders. But it turns out the war can rage on the territory of the Russian Federation," he said. "Now in Kursk Oblast, our forces are digging into the ground and building fortifications. This is for the long haul."
Read also: WP: Ukraine captures Sudzha gas-metering station in Kursk Oblast, Russia