War without US: How the paradigm of confrontation has changed and why Europe needs Ukraine
Just as European leaders declare their inability to effectively fight Russia in the near future, Ukraine demonstrates remarkable growth in both defense and defense-industrial potential. Can the EU really not replace the US after the suspension of arms supplies? What are EU countries capable of and how can Ukraine strengthen them? And finally, what do security guarantees for Ukraine actually mean?
Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, explores these questions for LIGA.net. His analysis is published in two parts. The first covers the prerequisites for the new geopolitical order. The second outlines the immediate steps Europe can take with Ukraine, such as nuclear deterrence against Russia or the creation of strategic defense forces.
Prerequisites for the new geopolitical order
The longest speech in the country's history by the US president to Congress resembled a justification of arbitrariness and could only surprise with applause from hypnotized people. In practice, it merely emphasized and reinforced existing trends in new US policy.
First, Europe has realized that the US is no longer the guarantor of continental security; some European NATO countries have even limited data sharing – just in case. The traditional unity of the Western camp has been brazenly violated, and the Alliance itself, thanks to the efforts of the new White House master, may be living its last months, as it is already transforming into a phantom.
Second. The open and quite practical game for Putin has untied the dictator's hands and provided confidence to increase military pressure on Ukraine. In a few weeks, the vain and irreparably destructive Trump has done more for the image of an international criminal than dozens of laudatory books and servants from Comedy Club and Ural Pelmeni [Russian comedy TV shows].
The very fact that an international criminal with an arrest warrant and claims to a number of Central and Eastern European countries has regained the status of a leader of a major world power with a nuclear arsenal, with whom it is necessary to negotiate at the negotiating table thanks to the efforts of the new US president and his team, has significantly worsened security conditions on the European continent.
As for the suspension of military aid, it's worth noting that Trump deliberately hit the most painful areas.