"Out of the gray zone": Zelenskyy unveils Victory Plan – what he aims for

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has presented his Victory Plan to the Ukrainian parliament for the first time. The full details of the plan had not been disclosed until now.

A central element of the plan is Ukraine's invitation to NATO before the war ends. The other points include arguments for why this would be beneficial for NATO and a list of steps that partners should take to help bring about victory.

Kyiv hopes to receive this invitation within the coming months. Even if ratification of the NATO accession agreement takes longer, the mere invitation would be a strategic defeat for Russia, according to Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian Parliament's Foreign Policy Committee, speaking to LIGA.net.

Is Zelenskyy's key condition realistic? A brief analysis follows.

THE PLAN. It consists of five main points and three confidential annexes.

Zelenskyy's plan includes:

• NATO invitation: Zelenskyy said that this would be a "demonstration of resolve" and show how partners view Ukraine within the "security architecture."
• Strengthening defense: This involves strategic operations to prevent buffer zones, deployment of air defense systems, joint efforts with partners to down Russian aircraft, expanded use of Ukrainian drones and missiles, removal of arms usage restrictions, and access to partner intelligence. It also includes a list of Western weapons Ukraine seeks to obtain.
• Deterring aggression: A comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package to safeguard against Russian aggression and diminish its capabilities.
• Developing strategic-economic potential and sanctions: Proposes special agreements with the EU and U.S. on joint defense and investment in resource extraction, including uranium, titanium, and lithium.
• Post-war prospects: Ukraine will have a significant and experienced military force, which could contribute to strengthening NATO's defense and European security.

The confidential annexes include details about the weapons that partners are expected to provide.

The invitation to NATO is the key geopolitical aspect, said Mykhailo Samus of the New Geopolitics Research Network, speaking to LIGA.net.

"Putin's goal is the complete destruction of Ukraine and its nation. He exploits the West's perception of Ukraine as a gray zone," said the analyst. "An invitation would mean that the debate over whether Ukraine belongs to a European gray zone or Russia's sphere of influence would finally be over."

For Ukraine, the NATO invitation "should be fundamental to peace."

"If we, Ukrainians and partners, don't strengthen ourselves now, Putin will strengthen himself next year – and in such a way that diplomacy will be dismissed forever," Zelensky said.

WHY IT MATTERS. For Ukraine, receiving an invitation to join NATO is crucial, said MP Oleksandr Merezhko to LIGA.net.

"This is the main guarantee of our security and survival, both now and in the future," he said. "It would mean a political and geostrategic defeat for Putin."

The accession process will still take some time. The formula and duration of this process are subjects of further discussion.

Even the invitation itself would be a major blow to the Russian dictator's regime and his plans to defeat Ukraine in this war, Samus said.

"We've distanced ourselves from Russia. But Russia cannot distance itself from us," he explained. "So we urge allies: if you see us as part of the democratic world, invite us to NATO. This doesn't mean we'll become NATO members tomorrow. But geopolitically, the West will show that Ukraine is an ally. And Russia can no longer wage a war aimed at its destruction."

The other points of the plan include arguments explaining how Ukraine would strengthen both NATO and the global security system, Merezhko added. It's about mutually beneficial cooperation, not making Ukraine a burden for NATO.

WHAT'S NEXT. President Zelenskyy will head to the EU summit to introduce the Victory Plan to European partners.

Merezhko considers the prospect of receiving an invitation to join NATO soon to be realistic. "Usually, this happens at NATO summits. But it can be expedited: at the initiative of the US or another member state, the NATO Council can convene, address the issue, and support such an invitation," he said. "It all depends on political will. If it's there, the matter can be resolved very quickly."

Ukraine's Ambassador to NATO, Natalia Galibarenko, notes that Ukraine wants to receive the invitation before Joe Biden leaves office.

"Our idea is that giving Ukraine an invitation at this moment is a political signal. We sincerely believe that it can be part of the legacy of the current American administration," said the ambassador.

However, expecting such a quick decision might be overly optimistic, cautioned Ivo H. Daalder, the US Ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, in an interview with LIGA.net.

"It won't happen. And even if it did, it wouldn't change anything," he said. "An invitation is slightly more than a promise that NATO has been giving Ukraine since 2008. To become a member, all 32 current members must ratify the accession agreements. It took Sweden two years. Biden leaves office in three months."