"Russia can only look through binoculars." Possible attack on Sumy and Russian capabilities

The Sumy direction could be Russia's next target. After the breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast towards Vovchansk, both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, have warned of a possible Russian offensive on Sumy and Chernihiv.

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Given the current positioning of Russian occupation forces in Kharkiv Oblast, they can currently "only look at Sumy Oblast through binoculars," Viktor Kevlyuk, an analyst at the Center for Defense Strategies and a retired colonel, told LIGA.net.

However, Russia may initiate operations in the north "without deep incursions into Ukraine" to stretch Ukraine's defenses over hundreds of kilometers and force the Ukrainian command to move reserves from Donbas.

What is happening on the northern borders of Ukraine, how many troops are there, and whether there will be a new offensive in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.

"There are not enough troops". The situation in northern Ukraine

According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Russia has planned an operation in the Sumy Oblast to the one in Kharkiv Oblast:

In Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts there is daily shelling, with Russian forces carrying out sabotage and reconnaissance, Andriy Demchenko, a representative of the State Border Guard Service, told LIGA.net.

"They are shelling not only with artillery but also with armored vehicles and tanks. The enemy, which keeps certain forces opposite the territory of Ukraine, uses armored vehicles that can move toward our border," Demchenko says.

So far, the border guards haven't observed any significant increase in Russian forces in these directions.

Previously, there were reports of about 30,000 troops in each oblast.

"Even if there are not enough forces to achieve a strategic goal, the enemy could use them for a tactical attack to divert units of the Defense Forces," Demchenko believes.

For now, Russian forces lack the strength for a large-scale offensive in the Sumy Oblast, says Vadym Mysnyk, spokesman for the Pivnich operational-strategic group.

Possible new offensive on Sumy

Russia has considered attacking Sumy Oblast along with Kharkiv Oblast, says Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council. "But they are heavily dependent on their results in Kharkiv Oblast," he explains. "So far, they have not achieved their previously planned goals in the Kharkiv region. This directly affects their plans for the Sumy region."

In the first week of the Russian operation in Kharkiv Oblast, the deepest enemy advance, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was 10 km.

Ukrainian forces have halted the active advance of the Russian occupiers in the Kharkiv Oblast, but have not yet stabilized the front line, notes Oleh Syniehubov, head of the regional military administration.

All this is a simulation of a major Russian offensive on Kharkiv, says Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, adding that it failed.

Russia may try similar mock operations with several battalions in the Sumy and Chernihiv sectors, Samus adds. "But it's unlikely that these will be operations aimed at penetrating deep into Ukraine."

"Russia currently lacks the strength for a large-scale attack on Sumy Oblast," Kevlyuk agrees. "They don't even have enough forces to take Vovchansk."

He believes that the Kharkiv campaign was an attempt by Sergei Shoigu to retain his position as Russia's defense minister.

During this attempt, the Russian command had to choose between borrowing troops from the Kupyansk and Lyman sectors, halting the offensive there, or using the 138th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from the Sumy sector in Kharkiv Oblast.

The 138th Brigade is now in Vovchansk – the Ukrainian defenders have taken their first prisoners. This means that the Russians "can only look at Sumy Oblast through binoculars," says Kevlyuk.

"Shoigu didn't hold his position," the retired colonel adds. "All the military power is with [chief of the Russian General Staff] Gerasimov. He's a military pragmatist, so the pressure will be on Vovchansk, not Sumy."

"They can do it again?" What to expect next

The Kharkiv campaign was aimed at forcing the Ukrainian command to withdraw reserves from Donbas, Samus recalls: "Stretch Ukrainian reserves for additional hundreds of kilometers, making it difficult for the command to defend Donbas."

As a result of the fighting in Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces expanded the active combat zone by almost 70 kilometers, trying to force Ukraine to pull additional brigades out of reserve, says Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

But the risks for the northern regions remain high. The example of the Kharkiv operation could inspire the Russians to repeat similar operations in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, says Oleksiy Melnyk, a military expert at the Razumkov Center.

He adds that the ban on the use of Western weapons for attacks on Russian territory will help to protect Russian logistical chains in this sector.

"The Russian command saw that they could gather forces relatively easily, without the threat of being hit deep inside, beyond the range of Ukrainian rocket artillery, and create small footholds to stretch our forces," Melnyk explains. "This can weaken the Ukrainian defense along the entire front line."

So even if these operations weren't planned earlier, the Russian command is now seriously considering repeating the Kharkiv experience, the Razumkov Center military expert believes.

"If the Russians see an opportunity for operational success, move reserves to reinforce, and attempt an in-depth offensive, it's a matter of weeks," he says.

The Ukrainian command is aware of the threat and must act to prevent it, Melnyk adds. This view is shared by sources in the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.

Recent statements by the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace that Ukraine will decide how to conduct the war and how to use the weapons provided give hope that Ukraine won't be forced to adhere to political constraints, Melnyk said.

During a meeting with journalists, Zelenskyy emphasized that there should be no bans: "This is not an offensive with Western weapons on Russian territory. This is defense."

Lifting such restrictions will increase the capabilities of Ukrainian defenders. This is crucial. "There will be fierce battles, and the enemy is preparing for them," says Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.