Trump aside. What to prepare for if Russia wins: scenarios of escalating war
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is savoring the creeping advance of his troops in Ukraine. He believes he can win, and he is increasing the pressure, burning through more and more resources in the war. Ukraine is doing its best to hold back the advance of Russian and now North Korean infantry. The occupation forces also include mercenaries from Cuba, India, Nepal, Syria, Serbia, Algeria, the Central African Republic, and Libya.
Ukrainians live under North Korean shells and shoot down Shahed drones from Iran. Ukrainian cities are under attack from Russian and Korean ballistic missiles with ranges that have never been used on a battlefield before.
The United States ignores calls for a significant increase in support, citing possible escalation by Russia or the prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
But without U.S. support, Russia will advance in 2025 because Kyiv will run out of weapons, predicts Elaine McCusker, the U.S. Under Deputy Secretary of Defense (2017-2020) under Donald Trump's previous administration. By the end of 2026, the Ukrainian army is likely to falter, allowing Russia to capture Kyiv and approach NATO's borders. To defeat Russia, which will capture Kyiv, the United States will need $808 billion.
"Make no mistake, if Ukraine loses, we will be in a new world war," Leon Panetta, former CIA director and former U.S. Secretary of Defense, tells LIGA.net.
The question is what Europe will do: will it sit down for coffee and think about the threats, or will it go to training to repel them, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin tells LIGA.net.
Could Russia's creeping aggression lead to World War III if Trump's plan doesn't work? Can the world stop it? What could be the role of Ukraine in this battle? To find the answers to these questions, LIGA.net interviewed 16 security analysts and military officials from Ukraine, the United States, Europe and East Asia (see the full list at the end).
The axis of evil and other troubles. Three scenarios
Sometime between October 8 and 13, seven ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet set sail from DPRK ports to Vladivostok, Russia. North Korea's military was on board.