The main scenario of further development of Ukraine

Survival or development: which scenario will Ukraine choose?

Our constant focus—not just now, but throughout all 33 years of independence—on mere survival has hindered us from becoming strong and self-sufficient. We concentrate on current problems, on those risks that have already materialized — and not prepare for new challenges, which is why we are constantly late.

A clear example is the current problems with the energy system. Would it have been possible to prevent the almost critical situation that has developed now? Of course. We warned about the risks of a blackout back in 2019, considering this path one of the key ways for the enemy to put pressure on Ukraine.

It is important to talk not so much about recording what has already happened in Ukraine, but about what will happen next. And what should we prepare for next? Traditionally, Ukrainian businesses are very optimistic. They always try to be a little more positive about the circumstances they find himself in – to act more proactively, despite all the risks.

That is why business is often the savior of a fragile state. An adaptive, self-activated horizontal society saves the country in times of greatest challenges. But saving is one thing. And for development, more is needed – strategy, systematicity, cooperation of the state, society and businesses.

Scenarios for Ukraine

Of course, there are many scenarios for Ukraine. But at the moment, they – especially inertial scenarios – look quite pessimistic.

A very unpleasant scenario of a delayed war is, unfortunately, the main scenario given the weakness of our partners and Russia's ability to squeeze us. This is definitely not a scenario in Ukraine's favor, so this scenario will lead to the weakening of aid to Ukraine, the partial lifting of sanctions, the arming of the Russian army and a new, larger-scale aggression.

And this despite the fact that even now we are not keeping up with the pace of technological advancement of the army of the occupiers. Military commanders are already telling me that although we used to have a temporary advantage in terms of drones and EW systems, now, unfortunately, we are losing it.

The state should now treat businesses as favorably as possible and treat taxpayers' money in general in a responsible manner (regarding the effectiveness of its use). It should let go, give more freedom for entrepreneurship and optimize state spending, improve the work of state institutions.

Give more opportunities to develop the defense-industrial complex. Give an order for 3-5 years so that businesses can invest in this area. Then we as a country, as a business, as a society will definitely be able to cope with the current difficult situation.

Otherwise, we are doomed to defend ourselves, to catch up – in other words, to survive. And such a strategy, unfortunately, a priori does not lead to victory.

Great opportunities – great responsibility

Ukraine is the next great opportunity for the world and Europe, primarily after the Ukrainian victory. Why am I sure of this? Because we have already seen the example of Poland in the early 2000s, the recent example of Romania and Bulgaria. Why does this happen? Because at the moment when the country carries out liberal reforms, it becomes more open to international investors – so it, and investors, and partner countries win.

But today, Ukraine has lost three of its four advantages – cheap human resources, cheap energy and logistical convenience. The fourth is not lost – it is the presence of significant resources, minerals – gas, lithium, titanium, uranium. Yes, not all of them are effective, but at least they are there. However, Ukraine must significantly change the logic of the approach to strategizing first of all. The strategy should be based on other key advantages — the innovativeness of Ukrainians, liberal freedoms, the ability to export security and adaptability.

Investments that are ready to enter Ukraine, according to our rough estimates, stand at approximately $50-60 billion. This is commensurate with the already accumulated FDI in Ukraine over 33 years. We can be a food security zone for Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. We can be a European energy hub.

We can become a logistics hub for Asian countries in the European direction. We can be a rallying point for Europe. We can be a platform for finalizing and customizing products – preparing them for European markets – we definitely have such a logistical opportunity, even despite all the problems listed above.

There are many possibilities, but I would like to caution us against seeking a quick victory. We do not need any quick victory – we need a final victory that would allow Ukraine not only to restore its territorial integrity, but also to have strong security guarantees for the years to come.

Because, unfortunately, only under such conditions will we have tens of billions of investments in Ukraine. For example, in order for Ukraine to reach the level of one trillion GDP, we need approximately 400 billion investments over the next 10 years. This is eight times more than we have had in the last 33 years.

We will need to learn how to work with investments. It will be necessary to transform our state into one that is guaranteed to fulfill its obligations not only to its own people, but also to its own businesses, to foreign investors, and to international partners.

And, after all, we should be innovative – not afraid to surprise the whole world and ourselves.