The road ahead: Assessing progress and challenges on the invasion's second anniversary
Society is tired and divided, exhausted by strife and despair. The inflated expectations of 2023 turned out to be a disappointment, even for those who were not enchanted in the first place. That degree of unity and effort that was there in the early days is over.
The army is exhausted by battles, lack of rotation and understaffing, shortage of weapons and ammunition, weak statements and lack of understanding of what will happen next with the command system. There will never be such a wave of volunteers as at the beginning.
Business is being cheated once again when recent promises to end the pressure have been followed by bills that only make it worse. The share of entrepreneurs who are ready to simply shut down has reached a record high.
Communication between the government and society stopped for good. United News telethon, anonymous Telegram channels and positive bloggers are not able to convey a position or maintain trust. We learn important things from foreign media. Reverse signals from bottom to top are blocked completely. Vitally important decisions are principally not discussed.
The civil service is actually on the verge of disappearing due to understaffing, low salaries, fear of persecution even for the most necessary decisions and hatred of society. The unscrupulous steal like on the last day, the virtuous hide like snails. Trust in state institutions is generally at an extremely low level.
The political elite is fundamentally focused on ratings and elections, not on victory. This false system of priorities costs more and more.
Foreign aid is arriving more slowly and in smaller amounts than needed. The issues of ineffective communication (weak messages and insufficient channels) are exacerbated by apparent strategic disagreement among allies. There seems to be uncertainty about both the risks of Ukrainian defeat or victory to allied interests.
There is a threat of loss of macro-financial stability, a sharp drop in the hryvnia exchange rate and an outbreak of inflation (although intensive cooperation with the EU and the IMF can avert this threat).
All this against the background of the further development of the demographic crisis, huge emigration and internal migration, the growth of the shadow labor market and the increase in the number of citizens who need social protection.
And all this against the background of the collapse of democracy, freedom of speech, transparency and accountability, local self-government and other foundations of Ukrainian vitality. Against the background of political quarrels and communication failures.
We have come closest in the 32 and a half years of independence to a strategic defeat. Behind which is Ruin, wasteland and the next genocide.
It's time to come to our senses.
The price of what can be lost is realized at the moment of loss.
Here I should write a call to action according to the laws of the genre. I don't have a call to action. Rather, it is a call to inaction addressed to the group of people who run the country. Stop it. Just stop political games, ratings and election preparations. Stop rocking the boat. Sit idle for a while, rest. Give people a chance to breathe. Give the parliament the opportunity to deal with the urgent gaps in the legislation, and the government – in the economy. Allow the army to fight and the entrepreneurs to work. Give people a break. The time for politics will come closer to victory. And now we are closer to defeat. Just stop.
Otherwise, the boat will sink, and there will be nothing to steer.