Putin unlikely to use nuclear weapons soon. Two main reasons

Russians are again playing a familiar "Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons" game. The main reason is to pressure the United States into preventing Ukraine from striking deep into Russia with long-range weapons. Unfortunately, they are close to succeeding.

As before, I believe Putin doesn't plan to use nuclear weapons in the medium term. The main reason is that he is a coward who fears for his life. Nuclear weapons remove the currently taboo question of Putin's physical elimination.

Moreover, in Putin's circle, except for Patrushev and Kovalchuk, there seems to be no one ready to support using nuclear weapons, and he would have to make a collective decision. Of course, the subjectivity of a Bastrykin or a Kiriyenko is very conditional now. However, from the perspective of a potential elite coup, the use of nuclear weapons could ignite a desire among these figures to assert their influence and hasten the transition of power.

Nuclear weapons increase Putin's internal isolation. And he will turn into a madman who is a threat to the elites. Simply put, after the use of nuclear weapons, Putin will be forced to resort to internal terror and will have to purge the elites, opening the way for new cadres to come in and replace them in the short term.  This will require a tremendous effort. And Putin has recently demonstrated terrible laziness.

Let me remind everyone: the full-scale invasion began because Putin believed that a short, victorious war would turn him into the third pole of the world, and China and the United States would be forced to take him to a new Yalta conference to divide the world. With a high degree of probability, we can predict that nuclear weapons will lead to the isolation of the Russian Federation.

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