Where will Russia direct its next major ground offensive? Not Zaporizhzhya and not Odesa

The main directions of impact, in my opinion, will be in the east and northeast. Russia can create the impression that the offensive is going along the entire front by intensifying the shelling. In fact, there will be priority areas. The east remains. And the north, Kharkiv Oblast.

They cannot conduct offensives in the south - Mykolaiv, Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhya. Nor toward Odesa. This is exclusively psyops, psychological pressure. They can't go for it in the current situation, even though we do have problems. This is a large-scale operation, and I think that Russia will not have such resources. To create auxiliary axes - yes. And to break through the defense line. This is aviation in the first place. But they will not have enough resources to advance.

I do not think that they will mobilize the announced 300,000 people by June. It will be from 100,000 to 150,000. The plans are in fact 300,000. But plans are plans, how many times have Russian plans failed.

The fiercest battles will be in the northeast. Further, for accurate forecasts, we need to see the concentration of troops in May or June. If more of them appear in Belgorod Oblast - it means that something is being prepared, if they all appear on the Donetsk axis - it means that [spymaster Kyrylo] Budanov's prediction that this will be the main focus has come true.

So far, from the troops that are available in the three regions on the border - Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod - it cannot be said that this is a large grouping of troops that can achieve great results.