For the first time in three years, I can say there's a threat of a nuclear strike

1. Putin is playing the Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0, the biggest game of his life. He has always dreamed of redoing that crisis and testing the U.S., believing that Khrushchev missed a historic opportunity. Putin thinks that if Khrushchev hadn't backed down, the U.S. would have been broken.

2. He frames everything in relation to the U.S. All his actions and appeals are targeted at America.

3. He's narrowing his room for maneuver. By raising the stakes to the maximum, he's effectively demanding (or begging) that Trump call him first. This obsession with getting a call signifies, in his mind, that others fear him—and that, to him, is more important than any agreement. As a coward by nature, he takes satisfaction in his opponent's fear.

4. Russian elites are terrified and likely believe it's time to act. They won't forgive him for this fear, strange as it might sound now. He's breaking every rule. But now, he's not just impoverishing them; he's turning them into accomplices in their own destruction. They're not ready for collective suicide. This will inevitably change the elites' mood, albeit with a delay.

5. China's silence is intriguing. Beijing sees this as an opportunity for talks with the U.S. A nuclear strike could even benefit China, as it might force Washington to negotiate with Beijing. However, the question of how and by whom Russia's leadership would be replaced remains uncertain. Plus, there's the North Korea factor, although China can relatively easily resolve this by smothering Kim in embraces

6. There's a group in Putin's circle that would benefit from a nuclear strike. Such an act would allow them to isolate him in a bunker. I suspect this group is led by Kiriyenko.

7. For the first time in three years, I can say there's a threat of a nuclear strike. It's still a small risk, but it exists. The main reason is the interest of certain individuals in Putin's circle who are fueling his ambitions, intending to isolate and overthrow him later.