F-16s can turn the tide of war under only one condition

The planes themselves can be an X-factor if you can flatten enemy air defenses and leave their aircraft on the ground. Well, like the Americans in Iraq. But such a function has not been delivered to us and will not be delivered.

At the same time, Russia, which started the war with total superiority in the air, was unable to overcome Ukrainian air defense and during the 30 months of the war could not make either aviation or missiles a decisive factor in the war.

But each plane, even if it does not lead to Putin’s surrender in 15 minutes, reduces the Russians’ ability to strike military and civilian targets with anti-aircraft missiles, allows more effective shooting down of enemy missiles and attack UAVs, reduces pressure on the front line, energy, and critical infrastructure in general.

Each batch of F16s does not reduce to zero the probability that the Russians will hit another hospital or home. But it significantly reduces the likelihood of this. War as a phenomenon is generally a game of probabilities. Any balance improvement in our favor is a good thing.

That is, each plane becomes a component of a very multifactorial war, where people, artillery, armored vehicles, UAVs, ground air defense, etc. work. The component that will work to further deplete Russia and exhaust its military potential. And so, when the country drives tanks from the '50s to the front, it is quite amusing to talk about its "inexhaustible resources".

Do we want more? Yes, it is natural. Want it sooner? This is also natural. But, to be honest, I don't see any "pitfalls" in this story with planes. The training of pilots, infrastructure, deployment of completely unusual combat vehicles of such complexity in two years is, in fact, at the level of a separate feat.

Therefore, we do not expect miracles. But the planes will make their contribution. In order for Ukraine to be preserved as a state and for us to live in a peaceful country again.